It’s one thing to read about the failure rates of startups but it’s another to engage with hundreds of founders and realize why those failure rates are so high.
99.99% of founders simply aren’t capable of achieving their ambitions. Most don’t know what exactly they are doing and even less know why they are doing it. They are not capable of positioning themselves to surf market forces, they are not capable of attracting talent, they are not capable of building compelling product, and they are not capable of attracting capital.
I am both disappointed and grateful for this. Disappointed because it is our duty The Duty of the 1% to maximize our impact ala The “Rocketship” Era — Going Big on Startup v2 and so I expect better. Grateful because it increases the opportunity to tackle juicy problems and be first to market.
But why is the bar low? Not because of laws of the universe but simply because: they have disrespected their preparation relative to the scope of their ambition.
Why are founders underprepared? Why don’t they all eventually succeed? Because they don’t have the resolve. Given enough time and enough resolve success is guaranteed.
Fundamentally I believe that another person doing something is evidence I can do something. The only difference is programming, positioning, and relationships. All of these areas, if deficient, can be rectified with a long enough time horizon.
For myself I spent half a decade in preparation. I took the failure statistics seriously. I studied successes and failures. I wrote myself a founder curriculum.
As a result of this I have confidence and evidence that I can build not simply a successful company but a wildly successful company.
I will succeed or die because of how view the opportunity and duties that I have before me. Failure and a quiet life isn’t an option and so my standards rise. Because of this I take a long view and I partition the years of my life and invest them for the greatest possible alpha with the greatest odds of success.
That is resolve. Because of my path ala The “Rocketship” Era — Going Big on Startup v2 I am able to have a strong internal compass. Millions of compounding decisions add up over time. I am able to cut away the possibility space of entire categories of work. This increases the odds of success.
So, the good and bad news is that while a tiny fraction of would-be founders can achieve any degree of success, an even smaller fraction can swing at world shaking problems. That means that there is no shortage of opportunity, only a shortage of resolved talent.
That is why when you do have the resolve and foresight to tackle these problems you find yourself in a relatively empty field with blue horizons ahead of you. The competition is weak.